More than 300 people were killed and at least 500 injured on October 14th when a truck bomb exploded in a crowded intersection in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital. The attack is being called the worst in the history of the city, a particularly alarming statistic considering that the capital has regularly been the scene of violent conflict since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991.
No one has yet officially claimed responsibility for the attack, although the Guardian reported that a man, detained when he tried to drive a second vehicle loaded with explosives into the capital, told security officials that the rebel group al-Shabaab was responsible.
Al-Shabaab is a terrorist group that has been fighting against the federal government of Somalia since late 2006. It is an extremist Islamist group with ties to al-Qaeda, working to include Somalia in an international jihad. Its strength has waxed and waned in the intervening decade. Since 2011, when it staged what it called a "tactical withdrawal" from Mogadishu, its activities in the capital have mainly consisted of suicide bombings, detonations of improvised explosive devices, and targeted assassinations of political figures.
Its capabilities in Mogadishu, as in nearly all Somali cities, are held in check by the combined forces of the African Union-backed AMISOM peacekeeping force and the Somali Federal Security Forces. But Somalia's military is notoriously weak, hampered by the fact that it is made up of a collection of clan militias seconded to the national authorities by their leaders, with often weak allegiance to the national project.
Al-Shabaab continues to control large swathes of the Somali countryside, and retains the ability to carry out large-scale attacks. It is playing a long game. In the short term the group is working to thwart the Somali government's efforts to consolidate its power, but it does not have enough power to defeat the government or to drive it from the capital. In the longer term, al-Shabaab professes to be working to expel foreign—Western—influence in Somalia and to establish a state based on an extreme reading of sharia law.
The recent explosion was significant for the scale of its devastation and the size of the arsenal contained in the truck. Details of where the explosives for the attack were obtained are yet to emerge, but it's clear that the operation must have been planned and carried out by a group with considerable organizational power.
The attack couldn't have come at a worse time for the federal government of Somalia. A week before, both Somalia's minister of defense and military chief resigned for reasons that remain unclear. The suspicions are that the two were rivals, but were also frustrated at a lack of support coming from the months-old administration of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo.
The government is trying to put in place a new Security Pact, agreed in May of 2017 at an international conference held at London's Lancaster House. That plan, which was to see the first of AMISOM's troops withdrawing in 2018, is very likely to be stalled as a result of the attack.
The attack is also likely to put a damper on the rhetoric rising out of the city in recent years that Mogadishu was becoming safer. With so many innocent civilians affected, the notion that only high-profile politicians or security personnel are at risk is now seriously challenged. This is likely to deter many Somalis from the diaspora as well as those living in refugee camps in neighboring countries, from returning.
If al-Shabaab is responsible for the dreadful loss of life, its official silence in the aftermath may be due to the very high number of civilian casualties. One theory is that the truck had been intended to explode outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but was detonated prematurely by the driver when it was stopped by security officials after getting stuck in traffic. The explosion then ignited a nearby fuel tanker, causing a fireball that destroyed buildings over several hundred meters in the center of the city. Causing so many civilian casualties is likely to lead to serious and widespread backlash against al-Shabaab—not the kind of public relations they are looking for in their battle to bring down the government.
Resilience and Solidarity
Yet amid the horror stories of suffering and loss, small glimmers of hope and resilience have emerged. One of the strongest and most immediate sources of support has been the Somali diaspora. Within hours it mobilized to raise money for Aamin Ambulance, the only free ambulance service in the city, to be able to take the wounded to hospital.
Daallo Airlines, a Somali-owned business, announced that it would transport all relief supplies into the country for free. Other crowdfunded efforts were started to provide support to the families of those affected. These efforts have raised thousands of dollars in just a few days.
International support is coming in many forms too. Djibouti responded by sending its minister of health and 30 doctors to help treat the wounded. Turkey evacuated 35 of the injured to be treated in Ankara, and sent 10 tons of medical supplies to Mogadishu. Paris extinguished the lights on the Eiffel Tower on October 16th at midnight, and Toronto's iconic name sign was illuminated in blue and white to pay respect to those affected.
Once the dust has settled, the fires are extinguished, and the loved ones laid to rest, maybe—just maybe—this resilience will be able to grow to ensure that the peace that Somali so desperately needs will come at last.