Prediction: The Detroit Tigers Will Get Most Wins This Baseball Season
Mathematician Bruce Bukiet projects most of last year’s division-winning teams will once again be victorious.
Predictions
The Goofy Origins and Dismal Track Record of Economic Forecasting
In Fortune Tellers, Walter Friedman shows not only where our contemporary forecasting ecosystem came from, but also its considerable influence on present-day economic thought and practice.
What to Watch for: Next Year's Biggest Stories in Politics
Will the mid-term elections settle anything? And who will the 2016 presidential candidates be?
The Math Equation That Explains David and Goliath
From babies' tantrums to labor strikes to guerrilla wars to global terrorism, there may be one simple math equation, a power law, that benchmarks them all. Better yet, it may allow us to predict these confrontations' future.
Death at the Summit: How the Feds Killed a Market Oracle
As CEO of Intrade, John Delaney harnessed the wisdom of the crowds, with often freakishly prescient results. Technocratic dreamers were ecstatic about the company's ability to predict the future, and maybe even reshape society. Today Delaney's company has collapsed and his body is entombed atop Mount Everest. A tale of bravado, bluster, and efficient markets.
Will California Build an Earthquake Warning System?
We're a long way from being able to predict temblors, but what if we had even a few moments of warning before the shaking started?
Intrade Shuts Down
The prediction market that shut down last week was fun, but it wasn't any better at predicting politics than polls are.
The Tyranny of Today: Not Who You Were, Nor Who You'll Be
Making sense of who we were, and who we’re likely to become.
Should We Buy Options on Presidential Candidates?
For decades, academics have been running a lively prediction market in political aspirations. But now commodities traders have proposed actually selling options on presidential candidates.
Is ESP Real? Psychic Power is Focus of Cornell Study
Rather than accepting or rejecting controversial findings — like Daryl Bem’s upcoming paper on ESP — based on preconceived notions, how about approaching them with scientific scrutiny?
Science Plugs into Prediction Markets
Although some set-up hurdles remain, a market in scientific predictions may help us forecast innovation.
Can Hurricanes Be Predicted Decades in Advance?
The rapidly growing field of paleotempestology lays the foundation for reliable hurricane predictions a decade or more into the future.
Mathematician's Model Predicts MLB Divisional Winners
The Yankees look to be the dominant team in baseball for 2010, according to a New Jersey Institute of Technology mathematician (and Mets fan).
Can You Run a Government With Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets aren't just for forecasting election outcomes, argues a law professor. They actually might be quite useful for all kinds of political and business decisions.
Baseball’s Best Teams Are … 2009 Edition
Math professor Bruce Bukiet uses his copyrighted system to predict which Major League Baseball teams will win the most games in the 2009 season.
Face Time: Voters Young and Old Judge By Looks
Forget campaign ads and stump speeches, apparently all we really need to see during an election are the candidates themselves.
Surprising Season Throws Baseball Guru a Curve
While most of math professor Bruce Bukiet's divisional-winner picks failed to come home, he says his system can still score.