Hurricane Florence gains strength in the Atlantic Ocean as it moves west, seen from the International Space Station on September 10th, 2018.
Mathematician Bruce Bukiet projects most of last year’s division-winning teams will once again be victorious.
In Fortune Tellers, Walter Friedman shows not only where our contemporary forecasting ecosystem came from, but also its considerable influence on present-day economic thought and practice.
Will the mid-term elections settle anything? And who will the 2016 presidential candidates be?
From babies' tantrums to labor strikes to guerrilla wars to global terrorism, there may be one simple math equation, a power law, that benchmarks them all. Better yet, it may allow us to predict these confrontations' future.
As CEO of Intrade, John Delaney harnessed the wisdom of the crowds, with often freakishly prescient results. Technocratic dreamers were ecstatic about the company's ability to predict the future, and maybe even reshape society. Today Delaney's company has collapsed and his body is entombed atop Mount Everest. A tale of bravado, bluster, and efficient markets.
We're a long way from being able to predict temblors, but what if we had even a few moments of warning before the shaking started?
The prediction market that shut down last week was fun, but it wasn't any better at predicting politics than polls are.
Making sense of who we were, and who we’re likely to become.
For decades, academics have been running a lively prediction market in political aspirations. But now commodities traders have proposed actually selling options on presidential candidates.
Rather than accepting or rejecting controversial findings — like Daryl Bem’s upcoming paper on ESP — based on preconceived notions, how about approaching them with scientific scrutiny?
Although some set-up hurdles remain, a market in scientific predictions may help us forecast innovation.
The rapidly growing field of paleotempestology lays the foundation for reliable hurricane predictions a decade or more into the future.
The Yankees look to be the dominant team in baseball for 2010, according to a New Jersey Institute of Technology mathematician (and Mets fan).
Prediction markets aren't just for forecasting election outcomes, argues a law professor. They actually might be quite useful for all kinds of political and business decisions.
Math professor Bruce Bukiet uses his copyrighted system to predict which Major League Baseball teams will win the most games in the 2009 season.
Forget campaign ads and stump speeches, apparently all we really need to see during an election are the candidates themselves.
While most of math professor Bruce Bukiet's divisional-winner picks failed to come home, he says his system can still score.