Viewfinder: Hurricane Florence Gains Strength and Barrels Toward the East Coast
Hurricane Florence gains strength in the Atlantic Ocean as it moves west, seen from the International Space Station on September 10th, 2018.
Browsing Tag
Predictions
19 posts
Prediction: The Detroit Tigers Will Get Most Wins This Baseball Season
Mathematician Bruce Bukiet projects most of last year’s division-winning teams will once again be victorious.
The Goofy Origins and Dismal Track Record of Modern Economic Forecasting
In Fortune Tellers, Walter Friedman shows not only where our contemporary forecasting ecosystem came from, but also its considerable influence on present-day economic thought and practice.
What to Watch for: Next Year’s Biggest Stories in Politics
Will the mid-term elections settle anything? And who will the 2016 presidential candidates be?
The Math Equation That Explains David and Goliath
From babies' tantrums to labor strikes to guerrilla wars to global terrorism, there may be one simple math equation, a power law, that benchmarks them all. Better yet, it may allow us to predict these confrontations' future.
Death at the Summit
As CEO of Intrade, John Delaney harnessed the wisdom of the crowds, with often freakishly prescient results. Technocratic dreamers were ecstatic about the company's ability to predict the future, and maybe even reshape society. Today Delaney's company has collapsed and his body is entombed atop Mount Everest. A tale of bravado, bluster, and efficient markets.
Will California Build an Earthquake Warning System?
We're a long way from being able to predict temblors, but what if we had even a few moments of warning before the shaking started?
Intrade, We Hardly Knew Ye
The prediction market that shut down last week was fun, but it wasn't any better at predicting politics than polls are.
The Tyranny of Today: Not Who You Were, Nor Who You’ll Be
Making sense of who we were, and who we’re likely to become.
Should We Buy Options on Presidential Candidates?
For decades, academics have been running a lively prediction market in political aspirations. But now commodities traders have proposed actually selling options on presidential candidates.